Dash's Risky Game: Copying Zcash's Rally or Crashing Back to Earth?
The Zcash Echo in Dash's Price
Dash (DASHUSD) has been making waves, surging over 385% in a month. The chatter is that it's mirroring Zcash's (ZECUSD) recent price explosion, hinting at a potential breakout. The bulls are drooling over the possibility of history repeating itself, envisioning a similar multi-hundred percent rally. But let's pump the brakes and look at the data.
The core argument hinges on the near-identical long-term chart patterns of ZEC and DASH. Both coins have been stuck in multi-year descending channels since 2017, and both appeared to be attempting a breakout in late 2025. ZEC successfully broke out in September, triggering a 634% rally from $60 to over $390 in weeks.
Now, Dash is sitting at a similar inflection point, testing the upper boundary of its seven-year descending channel. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 78.70, which is high, but still below ZEC’s peak before its surge. The article suggests a breakout could send DASH toward the $98 mark, a potential 400% increase from current levels. But is this a reliable projection or just wishful thinking?
Each time DASH has tested this upper channel boundary—2018, 2021, and 2022—it faced significant corrections, ranging from 85% to 97%. If buying momentum stalls, we could see a pullback to $69 (a 20% drop) or even a slide to the $14–$16 range by 2026.
Privacy Coins and Market Sentiment
The Zcash rally was fueled by a broader interest in "privacy coins," driven by demand for anonymity amid increasing blockchain regulation. Zcash hit a seven-year high, surging 26% in November alone, with some analysts predicting it could surpass $500 by year-end (the probability of this event was placed at 84% on Polymarket as of early November). Dash followed suit, jumping 50% in a single day. As one report noted, Zcash experienced a "200% return in a month"… Zcash, 'solo rally' amid downturn.
It’s worth noting that privacy coins tend to perform well during geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The U.S.-China trade situation and looming government shutdowns have historically boosted their appeal. However, regulatory risks remain a factor, with the EU strengthening privacy coin regulations and exchanges like Binance considering delisting them.
The Zcash ecosystem has also seen significant developments, such as the launch of Zashi, the official ZCash wallet, which has improved user experience and increased shielded transactions. Zcash developers are also working on Project Tachyon to improve the scalability of the shielding protocol.
I’ve looked at dozens of these “copycat” crypto rallies, and the problem always comes down to this: Correlation does not equal causation. Just because DASH is mimicking ZEC's chart pattern doesn't guarantee a similar outcome.
Is History Really Rhyming?
The question is: Can DASH replicate Zcash's success, or is it setting itself up for another painful correction?
The bullish case rests on the technical similarities between the two coins and the broader market sentiment favoring privacy coins. If DASH breaks out of its descending channel, it could indeed reach the $98 target, delivering substantial returns.
However, the historical data paints a grim picture. DASH has repeatedly failed to sustain breakouts from this channel, leading to massive price drops. The current rally could simply be another test of resistance, setting the stage for a sharp correction.
Ultimately, the future of DASH depends on whether it can overcome its historical struggles and ride the wave of privacy coin demand. The risks are substantial, and investors should proceed with caution.
