Julian Vance: The UAE's Two-Faced Game in Sudan
The fall of el-Fasher in Sudan to the RSF paramilitary group (led by General Hemedti) has triggered the usual cycle of international condemnation. The UN Security Council expresses "grave concern," the EU pledges "restrictive measures"—it's a familiar script. But, as Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair points out, these words haven't translated into meaningful action. And this is where things get interesting, because a closer look at the UAE's recent moves suggests a far more complex, and frankly cynical, game at play.
The CPTPP Gambit: A Smokescreen?
The Philippines and the UAE have both applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Now, on the surface, this looks like a straightforward attempt to diversify trade and counter potential tariff hikes from, say, a future Trump administration. (Remember 2017-2021? Good times.) But let's dig a little deeper. What does the CPTPP actually do? It's designed to reduce trade barriers and foster closer economic ties among its members. That's great in theory. In practice, what does it mean when one of the applicants—the UAE—is simultaneously being accused of fueling a bloody conflict in Sudan?
Consider the timeline: El-Fasher falls on October 26th. The UN expresses its concern on October 30th. The CPTPP application date remains unknown, but one has to wonder when this application was filed. Was it before or after the widely reported atrocities in Sudan? And if it was after, what message does that send? It suggests a calculated attempt to project an image of international cooperation while potentially supporting destabilizing forces behind the scenes.
Follow the Money (and the Arms)
The Le Monde article highlights the international community's "culpable indifference." But indifference isn't the same as active participation. The key question is this: Cui bono? Who benefits from the chaos in Sudan? While the article doesn't explicitly accuse the UAE of direct involvement in arming the RSF, the implication is clear. And if the UAE is indeed providing support to the RSF (financial, material, or otherwise), the CPTPP application becomes a convenient way to deflect scrutiny. It's like a magician performing a sleight of hand – all eyes are on the shiny new trade agreement while the real action happens elsewhere.
I've looked at hundreds of these situations, and this particular combination of events is unusual. States don't typically seek closer economic integration with partners while simultaneously engaging in actions that undermine regional stability. It's a discrepancy that demands closer examination. And honestly, I find this part of the analysis genuinely puzzling.
A Cynical Calculation
The UAE's CPTPP application, viewed in isolation, is a fairly unremarkable event. But when juxtaposed with the reports of its alleged involvement in Sudan, a more sinister picture emerges. It's a calculated move to improve its international standing while potentially furthering its own strategic interests in the region, regardless of the human cost. The numbers don't lie, and the numbers here suggest a cold, hard calculation.
