Title: Eli Lilly's Weight-Loss Drug Victory Lap: How Long Before the Party Ends?
So, Eli Lilly's stock is up because Novo Nordisk is stumbling? Color me shocked. It's like watching two toddlers fight over a toy, and when one faceplants, the other does a little dance. The market is so predictable it's depressing. Eli Lilly Stock (LLY) Rises as Competitor Novo Nordisk Cuts Guidance
The "Copycat" Crisis: A Load of Crap?
Novo Nordisk is blaming "copycat versions" for their lowered growth outlook. Give me a break. That’s like blaming the rain for your bad hair day. These are pharmaceuticals we're talking about. It takes years, mountains of cash, and a team of scientists to even think about creating a generic version of a drug. Are we really supposed to believe that suddenly there's a flood of perfect Ozempic clones flooding the market? I call BS.
And then there's the TrumpRx deal... selling Wegovy for $149. Sounds great, right? Except, how many people are actually going to get it for that price? It's probably just a PR stunt to make everyone feel good.
Eli Lilly's European Expansion: Because America Ain't Good Enough?
Okay, so Lilly's investing $3 billion in a new plant in the Netherlands. That's great for the Dutch, I guess. But what about here? Why are we shipping jobs overseas when we could use them here? Ricks, the CEO, says it's about "responding more quickly to local demand." Sure, that's what they all say. It's probably about tax breaks and cheaper labor, let's be real.
And get this—they're using "advanced manufacturing tools" like "full dock-to-dock automation." Translation: Fewer jobs for humans. Thanks, Lilly.
Oh, offcourse, they're making orforglipron there, the oral weight-loss drug. So, basically, they're betting the farm on people wanting a pill instead of a shot. Bold move, I guess. But what happens when the next big thing comes along? What happens when everyone gets bored with weight-loss drugs and moves on to the next health fad?
Analyst Ratings: Who Cares?
Analysts are tripping over themselves to give LLY a "Strong Buy" rating. Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price target to $985. Guggenheim reaffirmed their "Buy" rating with a $948 target. Morgan Stanley is still "Overweight." Who cares? These are the same people who told us Enron was a great investment. They're paid to be optimistic, not to be right.
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe everyone really believes in the weight-loss drug miracle and Eli Lilly's unstoppable rise. Maybe I'm just a cynical old bastard who can't stand to see anyone succeed...nah.
